SWIFT and other sanctions on cards for Russia if Ukraine invaded
The White House has issued a terse ‘readout’ following the secure video call between US and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, on 7 December, which gave little indication of how the United States (and/or its allies) would respond to any attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia – a move which many intelligence analysts have anticipated against a backdrop of a military build-up on the eastern side of the Ukraine-Russia border.
However, commentators have suggested that tightening the screws on Russian banks – and placing further obstacles in the path of the Nordstream2 project – are potential targets for US and other lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Kremlin – which is seeking assurances that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO – insists it is not planning an invasion but has decried the provision of military assistance to Ukraine by allies.
In its briefing on the call, the White House said, ‘President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation.’
The Kremlin also issued a summary, which said that the President of Russia ‘shared specific examples to illustrate the destructive nature of Kiev’s policy to dismantle the Minsk Package of Measures …and expressed serious concern about Kiev’s provocative actions against Donbass. Joseph Biden, in turn, focused on what he described as “threatening” movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border and outlined the sanctions the United States and its allies would be ready to impose should the situation escalate any further.’
News agencies have cited various unnamed sources as saying that sanctions options ‘on the table’ include taking further steps to block the progress of the Nordstream2 pipeline and to place sanctions on Russian banks, while in an interview prior to the video call, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs told news agencies that were Russia to invade, ‘the West’ should consider cutting off Russia’s access to the SWIFT international payment system.
In an April article, Brian O’Toole and Daniel Fried, Fellows of the Atlantic Council think tank, suggested that sanctions that might be imposed in the event of an incursion into Ukraine might include financing restrictions on Gazprom and Rosneft, blocking sanctions on banks including VTB or VTB Capital, and further measures against the mining and metals, shipping, and energy sectors.
