As Russian troop and tank numbers increase, so do western sanctions threats
While the West has expressed unity of sentiment in opposition to a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it has yet to fully articulate – perhaps deliberately – what sanctions might be imposed, and in what circumstances.
In the United States, senators have failed to reach agreement on a bipartisan sanctions package, with Republican senators introducing their own bill, the Never Yielding Europe’s Territory (‘NYET’) Act, which, if law, would immediately stop construction of the Nordstream2 pipeline and ‘send a clear deterrent message to Putin that an invasion of Ukraine will result in massive economic consequences to Russia’s economy, including: sanctions on major Russian banks; and secondary sanctions on banks that continue business with sanctioned Russian banks.’
It also ‘allows any chairman or ranking member of a national security committee to force a determination from the president on whether Russia’s aggression against Ukraine constitutes a major escalation and fulfills conditions to trigger sanctions.’
However, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, said in response to ‘Nyet’, “It’s a shame that Senate Republicans have decided to choose partisan posturing instead of working to reach consensus on a comprehensive bipartisan proposal that would demonstrate a united front to deter Putin from re-invading Ukraine,’ adding,
‘A partisan victory is not worth a message of division from Washington, which only benefits Putin. That is why I have worked for weeks to convince Republicans to join us in legislating something that can deter Putin, and why I will continue pushing for my Republican colleagues to reconsider this path before it’s too late for the people of Ukraine.’
In a 16 February speech, European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen said that despite Russian claims of de-escalation in the region, ‘NATO has not yet seen signs of any Russian troop reduction. And should the Kremlin choose violence against Ukraine, our response will be strong and united. The European Commission and the EEAS have been working closely with all Member States to prepare a robust and comprehensive package of potential sanctions. And we have worked in close coordination with our friends in the US, the UK and Canada.’
‘In case of a Russian aggression,’ she said, ‘Europe’s reaction will be swift and robust. We are not just talking about freezing assets and banning travel for Russian individuals. Russia’s strategic interest is to diversify its one-sided economy and to close its current gaps. But for this, they need technologies in which we have a global leadership. High-tech components for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us. Our sanctions can bite very hard, and the Kremlin knows this well.’
However, there are media reports that EU Member States are not united on what might constitute an appropriate sanctions package, with some concerned about measures that could be interpreted as an escalation of tensions, or weaken energy security and the European Commission says it is taking steps to increase imports of gas from non-Russian sources.
At a press briefing on 16 February (which some observers had mooted as being a possible date for a Russian incursion), Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova joked, ‘Sorry, I was held up for a minute. I was double-checking whether we are invading or not. We’re not invading!’ She gave no further response to concerns about apparent escalation.
The NYET Act is available at: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/DAV22128%20FINAL.pdf
