US, allies explore Russia’s exclusion from Wassenaar export control regime 

The United States and its allies are examining ways to recalibrate the Wassenaar Arrangement (‘WA’) – the multilateral export control regime – into a ‘Wassenaar minus one’ coalition that would exclude Russia.

That is amid growing frustration with the export control regime’s effectiveness, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (‘CSIS’) published November 25.

Discussions began at January’s US-EU Trade and Technology Council meeting, where officials debated either ‘excluding Russia from the WA or continuing without Russian involvement’ following its invasion of Ukraine, the Washington, DC think tank said.

The current 42-member Wassenaar regime faces critical limitations, including ‘its slow decision making process (requiring unanimity from all members), the lack of strategic measures (with only one plenary meeting per year), and the expulsion mechanism to remove Russia have resulted in protracted delays,’ the report notes.

However, expelling Russia presents significant challenges. ‘Russia itself would not vote for its own removal nor exit the WA. Russia continues to view the WA as a means to maintain its international status, “ensure that the WA is not directed against it,” and veto any proposals that could “harm its economic or security interests,”‘ according to the analysis.

As an alternative, some like-minded countries have begun implementing parallel export controls outside the Wassenaar framework, particularly on emerging technologies like quantum computing and semiconductors, according to the report.

The European Commission is also considering a new legal framework that would allow EU states to adopt controls even if vetoed by Russia.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/rethinking-wassenaar-minus-one-strategy