Dutch exports to circumvention-risk countries surge, study finds
Exports of EU-sanctioned goods from the Netherlands to seven countries identified as high-risk for sanctions evasion have increased significantly since 2022, even as direct exports to Russia fell 86%, according to a 10 December study by Statistics Netherlands (‘CBS’) and the University of Groningen.
‘Although this form of sanction circumvention is not directly observable in the CBS statistics, it is possible to investigate to which countries the export of sanctioned products has increased disproportionately,’ CBS said.
The study identified Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Serbia, Turkey and Turkmenistan as countries showing suspicious trade patterns. ‘To these destinations, Dutch exports of goods sanctioned for export to Russia have grown remarkably strongly. From these countries, exports to Russia have not decreased, or have even increased,’ the study noted.
It added that ‘the export value of sanctioned goods to the EEU+ region (the EEU countries Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, together with Mongolia and Turkmenistan) was more than 74 percent higher in 2022 and more than 90 percent higher in 2023 than the average in the period 2018-2021. In both years, exports of these products to the rest of the world grew by approximately 25 percent.’
Young and small-or-medium independent enterprises that had not previously exported sanctioned goods have begun shipping to these high-risk countries, often acting as intermediaries rather than manufacturers, the research found.
Turkish exports of machinery to Russia, particularly construction equipment like bulldozers and excavators, showed the largest increase among the identified countries during 2022-2023, the research noted.
