SIPRI warns of ‘collapse’ of INF Treaty between US and Russia

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (‘SIPRI’) has published a ‘backgrounder’ warning that the 1987 Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) is ‘on the verge of collapse.’ The US and Russia have accused each other of non-compliance with the treaty.

Under the treaty, the then Soviet Union and the US agreed not to ‘possess, produce or flight test’ a ballistic missile or ground-launched cruise missile (‘GLCM’) with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres, or to produce launchers for such missiles. ‘The demise of the INF Treaty could endanger both the bilateral nuclear arms control process, including the arms reduction process under the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) and regional security,’ says SIPRI.

The US first accused Russia of testing the prohibited GLCM in 2013, notifying its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies in 2015. Russia argues that the US itself violated the treaty by deploying missiles and launchers which when combined constitute prohibited weapons.

‘The dismissiveness of both Russia and the USA towards each other’s concerns in the context of the INF Treaty inspires little confidence in the treaty itself or arms control in general’, concludes SIPRI. ‘In all probability, the situation will not be improved by the Trump administration’s current punitive approach; the political and economic costs imposed by sanctions are unlikely to influence the strategic calculus underlying Russian cruise missile policy.’

For more information see SIPRI’s backgrounder, see:
https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2018/russian-and-us-policies-inf-treaty-endanger-arms-control